Annual report finds "headwinds" for Washtenaw County's economic outlook

The 40th annual Washtenaw County Economic Outlook report, commissioned by Washtenaw Community College (WCC), found that the county will face significant economic headwinds over the next few years. 

The report was presented to a crowd of 200 on April 24 during the President's Leadership Recognition Luncheon at WCC. Economists Dr. Gabriel Ehrlich and Donald Grimes of the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics co-authored the report and shared the findings. 

"We have a cautious outlook," Grimes says. "We think there's some headwinds that the county, as well as the state, is going to face, which will slow growth in terms of jobs and incomes. But we don't think that it's going to generate a recession."

Tariffs have been the talk of the town since President Donald Trump began his second term in January. Grimes underscores that the effects of tariffs will be more gradual and nuanced as opposed to immediate, dramatic price changes. 

"Theoretically, eventually, if the tariffs stay in place, you're going to see higher prices to consumers than otherwise would be the case, but that might take a while to show up," he says. 
 
The forecast shows the total number of jobs in the county will increase by 0.2% this year. It's predicted to increase by 0.4% next year, and 0.6% in 2027. Notably, the pre-pandemic average annual increase was 1.9% from 2010-2019. 

The labor force is predicted to top pre-pandemic levels by 6.7% in 2027. Washtenaw County’s jobless rate jumped from 3.5% last May to 4.7% in January. In the next few years, it's expected to stabilize at about 4.4%.

Grimes points to health care as one industry that will probably have the most jobs going forward on a consistent basis. 

"We're talking about especially good, well-paying jobs, usually with really good benefits," Grimes says. "The county is getting older, and older people tend to need more medical care."

By contrast, he thinks brick-and-mortar retail stores "are going to be hurting."

"More and more people are shopping online, and not just on Amazon," he says. "All sorts of other retail trade is being conducted electronically, and so we think there'll be fewer jobs in traditional brick-and-mortar stores going forward."

In the immediate future, Grimes says he'd like more eyes on higher education, and education in general, because it's critical for employment opportunities. 

"Anything to do with universities and colleges disproportionately affects Washtenaw County. We may get some, again, headwinds because of current policies or in terms of budget issues," he says. "But if you want to invest your money for the long run, invest in communities that have a university. These communities tend to have much better economies than places that don't."